WP 2

Objectives: Extension of UQ methods able to:

- Develop new methods for UQ able to handle efficiently large number of uncertainties (larger than 10), as well as geometrical uncertainties, including roughness, multi-physics (FSI, CHT, CAA) at the level of industrial challenges.

- Reduce computational cost of UQ software modules to a few hours (~10h) on ~100 cores, for 10 simultaneous uncertainties, tending towards a TRL 5-6

- Investigate the interaction between numerical errors (epistemic uncertainties) and the aleatory uncertainties

- Quantify and provide reliable definition of input uncertainties, based on scarce experimental data

- Provide methodologies for the definition of tolerances as objectives (inverse robust design)

Subtasks

Task 2.1: UQ methods for efficient handling of large number of uncertainties

Task 2.2: Development of efficient UQ methods for general geometrical uncertainties

Task 2.3: Impact of numerical properties of CFD codes, numerical noise, including issues of shock discontinuities on assessment and validation of UQ methods

Task 2.4: Methods for identification and quantification of input experimental uncertainties, including methods to define tolerances in input parameters to satisfy tolerance in output (inverse robust design)